Renewable Energy Development Plan of Tomakomai City

Executive summary

• Commissioned by the Tomakomai city government in Hokkaido, EPI has formulated renewable-energy introduction targets and an implementation strategy.
• To meet its goal of becoming a net-zero-carbon-emission city by 2050, Tomakomai has conducted a large-scale demonstration project for carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, the first such initiative in Japan, along with a carbon recycling project under the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO). EPI has formulated a decarbonization scenario that fully utilizes these initiatives.
• Through multiple rounds of dialogue with local businesses and other stakeholders in the Tomatoh Industrial Area and the nearby towns of Atsuma and Abira during the strategy formulation process, EPI has set a renewable-energy introduction target of 2,271 MW for the city.

Introduction

　Flourishing through the growth of the paper manufacturing industry, Tomakomai has become one of Japan’s preeminent industrial centers and houses Hokkaido’s only oil refinery, along with a coal-fired thermal power generation plant. Tomakomai also includes Tomatoh (one of Japan’s largest industrial zones) at its east side and the Tomakomai Port (a trade hub of Hokkaido) near New Chitose Airport.

　Besides carrying out Japan’s first large-scale demonstration project for CCS technology, Tomakomai is currently advancing carbon recycling and hydrogen demonstration projects with NEDO. In August 2021, the city announced its goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050.

　Against this backdrop, EPI has formulated a strategy for decarbonizing Tomakomai based on renewable-energy introduction targets and the characteristics of Tomakomai, working together with the city council and local stakeholders.

Decarbonization plan

　Tomakomai emits 12.76 million tons of CO2 (including emissions from its power stations that supplies power to regions outside the city), and 4.97 million tons of these emissions result from final energy consumption in Tomakomai (Figure 1). Reducing these emissions in the run-up to 2050 poses a major challenge.

Figure 1 CO2 emissions of Tomakomai (2018)

　The following features are unique to Tomakomai. First, the industrial sector is account for 68% of the city’s CO2 emissions. Second, a large amount of CO2 is emitted by captive power generation. Finally, the cold climate of this region increases the heat demand in the residential and commercial sectors (Figure 2). Therefore, the decarbonization of Tomakomai will require a transition from captive power generation (which accounts for about 40% of all CO2 emissions in the region) to renewable-energy generation. Further, the introduction of synthetic fuels and methanation and hydrogen/ammonia into heat sources, which account for about 30% of all emissions, will be required along with the introduction of the CCS or ammonia co-firing technologies for thermal power generation. Finally, the promotion of electrification and synthetic fuels in the transportation sector will also be required.

Figure 2 Decarbonization measures

　Figure 3 shows the energy-consumption and CO2-emission reductions achieved by each type of decarbonization measure. The expected CO2 emission reductions are 1.45 million tons after transitioning from coal and petroleum fired captive power generation to renewable-energy generation, 190,000 tons after promoting the electrification of heat sources (e.g., kerosene) and vehicles and introducing renewable energy, 650,000 tons after switching all electricity, including additional electricity demand due to electrification, to renewable sources, 440,000 tons after introducing the CCS technology for coal-fired power generation, 480,000 tons after introducing synthetic fuels for long-distance transportation (the electrification of which is difficult), 910,000 tons after introducing methanation processes for difficult-to-electrify heat sources, and 350,000 tons after introducing hydrogen/ammonia for the same purpose.

　EPI has laid out a plan for implementing these measures and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. In this plan, the CO2 emissions will be reduced by 2.3 million tons after introducing renewable energy, by 1.83 million tons after promoting CCUS/carbon recycling for heat sources/transportation that cannot be decarbonized by renewable energy alone, and by 350,000 tons after introducing hydrogen/ammonia.

Figure 3 Decarbonization plan (2050)

Renewable-energy introduction targets

　A plan for introducing renewable energy must consider the required renewable energy capacity for decarbonization and the rich natural environment of Tomakomai (Figure 4). Tomakomai is home to a bountiful natural environment, including stopovers of migratory birds, such as Lake Utonai (registered under the Ramsar Convention), Benten Marshland, and Shikotsu-Toya National Park. Tomakomai also nurtures abundant cultural treasures (such as the Shizukawa Ruins) and marine life. Therefore, renewable energy installations in the city’s surrounding area must be conducted while considering the needs of various stakeholders and the natural environment.

Figure 4 Sites and points requiring consideration*

　Figures 5 and 6 show the potential for introducing solar and wind as analyzed by EPI excluding areas requiring attention to the natural environment (as outlined above). Urban-rooftop solar can potentially generate 135 MW of solar power (residential: 95 MW; public facilities: 23 MW; industrial/commercial buildings: 23 MW), ground-mounted solar on unused property can generate 800 MW of solar power, and agriphotovoltaic solar covering 10% of farmland can provide an additional 28 MW of solar power. Meanwhile, large-scale installations on unused property with good wind conditions are envisaged to generate 400–800 MW of wind power, in addition to 38 MW of wind power already planned as of 2022.

Figure 5 Solar power generation

Figure 6 Wind power

　Figure 7 shows the targets for renewable energy (hydropower, geothermal, biomass, solar, and wind power) installations in Tomakomai. A total of 2.271 MW of renewables is necessary, including 1,063 MW of solar power in total (rooftop and ground-mounted installations), 838 MW of wind power (including already planned wind-power installations), and 143 MW of biomass-derived power (including power generated from planned fuel imports when timber procurement is restricted to a 50-km radius).

　To achieve these targets, the introduction of solar- and wind-power installations (major components of the introduced power-generation capacity) should progress through coordination with stakeholders.

Figure 7 Potential for renewable-energy introduction*

Transforming Tomakomai into a net-zero-carbon-emission city

　To transform Tomakomai into a net-zero carbon emission city, the renewable energy targets shown in Figure 7 must be achieved, taking the following three considerations into account.

　First, if the targeted renewable energy deployment is achieved using schemes such as FIT, there is a high likelihood that the generated electricity will be consumed outside of the Tomakomai area. To achieve decarbonization within Tomakomai, it is essential that renewable energy is consumed locally. Therefore, a system to promote local production and consumption through community power companies or microgrids should be established as soon as possible.

　Second, around 70% of Tomakomai’s CO2 emissions result from sources other than electric power generation (Figure 2). In areas that cannot be electrified, introduction of hydrogen/CCUS technology (currently being developed in Tomakomai) and carbon-neutral fuels based on hydrogen, e-methane, and others is essential.

　Third, to ensure a city where people can lead fulfilling lives, Tomakomai must engage in comprehensive decarbonization policies, including energy-saving policies such as insulation strengthening, improvement of parks and roadside greenery to mitigate the “heat island” phenomenon, and development of EV charging infrastructures to facilitate the electrification of the transportation sector.

Figure 8 Decarbonization in the residential and commercial sector